Is the Sequential Travel Forecasting Paradigm Counterproductive?

Abstract

The sequential travel forecasting procedure is widely accepted without question by transportation planners, yet its origins are obscure, its effects on practice and research may well be negative, and by focusing attention on individual steps, it tends to impede overall progress in improving forecasting methods. Alternatives to the sequential procedure proposed by researchers over the past 30 years are examined, and recent advances are presented. A call for a new travel forecasting paradigm concludes the paper.