Reducing Treatment Selection Bias for Estimating Treatment Effects Using Propensity Score Method

Abstract

Treatment selection bias leads to an inaccurate estimation of treatment effects as applied to specific sites or problem locations. Treatment selection bias is a major source of inconsistency in the results obtained from conventional before and after and cross-sectional models. One of the major expressions of treatment selection bias concerns the use of collision occurrence data in justifying intervention. For example, in highway safety field, a treatment is often introduced at a given site based on its high collision experience. Under normal conditions we would expect these collision numbers to return to a lower long term expected value, regardless of intervention. For treated sites, conventional observational models ascribe this reduction in collisions to the given treatment. This results in an overestimation of treatment effect. In this paper, a propensity score model is introduced that deals explicitly with treatment selection bias. The model is applied to Canadian highway–railway grade crossings data to estimate reductions in collision subject to upgrades in warning devices. The results of the propensity score model are compared for similar types of treatments to a number of before and after and cross-sectional models for both U.S. and Canadian data. The propensity score method is shown to reduce treatment selection bias and has probable merit that need to be further examined.