Analyses of Canadian Air Travel Demands

Abstract

The trends in Canadian domestic air‐travel demand during the past 20 years are described, and the annual changes in domestic air demand are shown to relate only very generally to the annual changes in economic activity. The longer term trend suggests that the domestic air‐travel market has matured and the efficiencies obtained from the technological advances introduced in the early 1970s have been absorbed by the market. Air‐travel demand grew at a faster rate than economic activity before 1983 but has lagged economic growth since 1983. This change is related to the sharp downturn in per capita expenditures on domestic air travel during the recession in the early 1980s and the fact that these earlier expenditure levels have not returned. Attempts to model the Canadian domestic market by both aggregate and disaggregate models are described and it is pointed out that these models have very marginal contributions to make to intercity transport public policy formulation and analysis in Canada. The paper also points out the fundamental air travel interaction structure between the major market areas in Canada has changed very little over the past 20 years and that simple updates of the existing demand structure using Fratar‐type expansions of existing travel patterns appear to be the only justifiable approach.