Stochastic Model for Pavement Design

Abstract

A stochastic model for pavement design is developed within an analytically derived mechanistic framework for predicting pavement distresses in terms of fundamental material behavior and structural response to traffic loads. The full‐distribution reliability methods employed in the model provide an analytically consistent approach for determining the reliability of a pavement section without the limitations and inconsistencies of current probabilistic methods in pavement design. A numerical illustration demonstrates that the impact of variations in design, construction, and operational variables on pavement performance can be explicitly evaluated.