Delphi Forecasts of Land Use: Transportation Interactions

Abstract

The Delphi method is used to predict the impacts of three alternative transportation programs in San Jose, California. Variables projected concern both land use (e.g., number of single‐family housing units) and choice of transit mode. Forecasts are made for 1990 and 2000 for four spatial zones within San Jose. Delphi panelists are individuals familiar with land use and transportation issues in the San Jose area. A preliminary questionnaire survey is used to set general economic conditions and land use policies that serve as a context for specific forecasts of land use‐transportation interactions. Strengths and weaknesses of the Delphi method in forecasting land use are assessed.