System Reliability Assessment by Method of Moments

Abstract

The computational assessment of system reliability of structures has remained a challenge in the field of reliability engineering. Calculation of the failure probability for a system is generally difficult even if the potential failure modes are known or can be identified, because available analytical methods require determination of the sensitivity of performance functions, information on mutual correlations among potential failure modes, and determination of design points. In the present paper, a method based on moment approximations is proposed for structural system reliability assessment that is applicable to both series and nonseries systems. The point estimate method is applied to evaluate the first few moments of the system performance function of a structure from which the moment-based reliability index and failure probability can be evaluated without Monte Carlo simulations. The procedure does not require the computation of derivatives, nor determination of the design point and computation of mutual correlations among failure modes; thus, it should be computationally effective for structural assessment of system reliability.