Wind-Field and Filling Models for Hurricane Wind-Speed Predictions

Abstract

Two key modeling components in the hurricane simulation process are the wind-field model, and the filling model, which describes the rate of decay of the hurricane after landfall is made. In the investigation described here, new wind-field and filling-rate models are developed for use in hurricane simulation routines. Detailed evaluations of the wind-field and filling models used in 1980 by Batts et al., which are used to develop the hurricane wind speeds given in ASCE-7-88, and the new wind-field and filling models are performed. Results indicate that the combination of wind-field and filling models employed in the original study used to derive hurricane wind speeds given in ASCE-7-88 yield significant overestimates of hurricane wind speeds at inland locations, and their wind-field model is unable to reproduce the high surface-level wind speeds evident in very intense storms. The deficiencies in the models used by Batts et al. are carried through to the recommended design wind speeds given in ASCE-7-88.