Prediction of Hurricane Wind Speeds in the United States

Abstract

Prediction of hurricane wind speeds using a simulation approach is the most universally accepted methodology for estimating design wind speeds in hurricane-prone regions of the world. An updated hurricane simulation methodology incorporating newly developed wind-field and filling models is used to obtain hurricane wind speeds associated with various return periods along the hurricane-prone coastline of the United States. Simulation results using the new hurricane simulation methodology indicate that design wind speeds given in ASCE-7-88 for the inland portion of the hurricane-prone coastline are excessive, and that the long-return-period wind speeds given in 1980 by Batts et al. are low. The simulation approach is extended to illustrate areawide hurricane area risk versus single-point risk by comparing hurricane risk for Dade County, Fla., to a single-point risk of a building in Miami, Fla.