Construction Project Network Evaluation with Correlated Schedule Risk Analysis Model

Abstract

Schedules are the means of determining project duration accurately, controlling project progress, and allocating resources efficiently in managing construction projects. It is not sufficient in today’s conditions to evaluate the construction schedules that are affected widely by risks, uncertainties, unexpected situations, deviations, and surprises with well-known deterministic or probabilistic methods such as the critical path method, bar chart (Gantt chart), line of balance, or program evaluation and review technique. In this regard, this paper presents a new simulation-based model—the correlated schedule risk analysis model (CSRAM)—to evaluate construction activity networks under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. An example of a CSRAM application to a single-story house project is presented in the paper. The findings of this application show that CSRAM operates well and produces realistic results in capturing correlation indirectly between activity durations and risk factors regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.