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    Hale Cycle and Indian Drought and Flood Area Indexes

    Source: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering:;1989:;Volume ( 115 ):;issue: 003
    Author:
    A. Ramachandra Rao
    ,
    G‐H. Yu
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1989)115:3(315)
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: The Indian drought and flood area indexes (DAI and FAI, respectively) have been suggested to be related to the Hale cycle of sunspot numbers by Bhalme and Mooley (1981). They studied the dependence between sunspot numbers, DAI, and FAI series by using spectral, cross‐spectral and dial analyses. The inference problems and the lack of dependability of results associated with crossspectral analysis of autocorrelated time series are well known. Consequently, in this study, the relationships between sunspot number, FAI, and DAI are studied by using more accurate methods of investigation of causal connections between time series and the results are reported. Univariate ARMA models are fitted to sunspot number, double sunspot cycle, DAI, and FAI series and these models are validated. The cross‐correlation properties of residuals from these models are studied. Statistical tests developed by McLeod (1979), Pierce (1977), and Haugh (1976) are used to investigate the causal connections between sunspot numbers and DAI and FAI series. The results indicate that there is no significant relationship between sunspot number and FAI series. There is a consistent, statistically significant relationship between sunspot number and mild and moderate DAI series. However, these relationships are not strong enough to be used in forecasting droughts.
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      Hale Cycle and Indian Drought and Flood Area Indexes

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/27036
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    • Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering

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    contributor authorA. Ramachandra Rao
    contributor authorG‐H. Yu
    date accessioned2017-05-08T20:47:01Z
    date available2017-05-08T20:47:01Z
    date copyrightJune 1989
    date issued1989
    identifier other%28asce%290733-9437%281989%29115%3A3%28315%29.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/27036
    description abstractThe Indian drought and flood area indexes (DAI and FAI, respectively) have been suggested to be related to the Hale cycle of sunspot numbers by Bhalme and Mooley (1981). They studied the dependence between sunspot numbers, DAI, and FAI series by using spectral, cross‐spectral and dial analyses. The inference problems and the lack of dependability of results associated with crossspectral analysis of autocorrelated time series are well known. Consequently, in this study, the relationships between sunspot number, FAI, and DAI are studied by using more accurate methods of investigation of causal connections between time series and the results are reported. Univariate ARMA models are fitted to sunspot number, double sunspot cycle, DAI, and FAI series and these models are validated. The cross‐correlation properties of residuals from these models are studied. Statistical tests developed by McLeod (1979), Pierce (1977), and Haugh (1976) are used to investigate the causal connections between sunspot numbers and DAI and FAI series. The results indicate that there is no significant relationship between sunspot number and FAI series. There is a consistent, statistically significant relationship between sunspot number and mild and moderate DAI series. However, these relationships are not strong enough to be used in forecasting droughts.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleHale Cycle and Indian Drought and Flood Area Indexes
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume115
    journal issue3
    journal titleJournal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1989)115:3(315)
    treeJournal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering:;1989:;Volume ( 115 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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