Case-Based Reasoning Model for International Market Selection

Abstract

To increase the quality of decision making in construction companies, organizational memory should be enhanced and utilized effectively. Experiences of other companies should constitute an important part of organizational memory so that a construction company may have the chance to learn from the experiences of others and modify its behavior in the light of acquired knowledge. Within this study, a case-based reasoning (CBR) decision support tool is constructed to demonstrate how experiences of competitors in international markets may be used by contractors, to support international market selection decisions. 215 cases from the Turkish construction industry have been used to build the model, namely CBR-INT. The reliability of CBR-INT in predicting potential profitability of international projects and the level of competitiveness of Turkish contractors is around 90%. Moreover, CBR-INT has proven to be an effective tool for practitioners due to its high explanation capability and ease of use. Using the conceptual framework of CBR-INT, different CBR models can also be constructed for other countries.