Forecasting Project Status by Using Fuzzy Logic

Abstract

This paper describes a forecasting method for predicting potential cost overruns and schedule delays on construction projects. The output of the forecasting method is useful in evaluating the project status at different time horizons and in quantifying the impact of the performance indicators on the profitability of the job. The method is intended for use by members of project teams in performing integrated time and cost control of construction projects. The paper addresses the effects of a number of factors, referred to in the developed method as indicators, on project cost overruns and schedule delays using fuzzy logic. The proposed forecasting method has been implemented in a prototype that operates in the World Wide Web environment. It has an open architecture that allows users to actively interact and, accordingly, makes use of their own experience and knowledge in the forecasting process. An example project is analyzed to test the developed prototype, demonstrate the use of the proposed method, and to illustrate its capabilities.