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    Financial Risk Analysis of Project Finance in Indonesian Toll Roads

    Source: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management:;2005:;Volume ( 131 ):;issue: 009
    Author:
    Andreas Wibowo
    ,
    Bernd Kochendörfer
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:9(963)
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: If a project is implemented using a project-finance approach, the debt service payment relies solely on the project cash flows and its assets. This paper identifies, quantifies, and evaluates major financial risks associated with project-financed toll road projects in Indonesia. Ordering payments by priority level, subject to cash availability, enables risk to be evaluated from the different perspectives of multiple parties involved. The paper makes use of Latin Hypercube simulations for risk analysis because they deal with problems involving large and complex systems. To better illustrate the concept, a case study is presented. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of delay-in-adjustment risk and of the adoption of a new regulation related to the toll adjustment is performed and discussed. Simulation results show that the project sponsor fares worse as delay-in-adjustment risk increases but that the creditor can fare better, given that the risk level is low or moderate. Output statistics also reveal that the adoption of the new regulation has negative impact on the project cash flows from both the project sponsor’s and the creditor’s perspectives under different scenarios associated with delay-in-adjustment risk.
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      Financial Risk Analysis of Project Finance in Indonesian Toll Roads

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/24586
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    contributor authorAndreas Wibowo
    contributor authorBernd Kochendörfer
    date accessioned2017-05-08T20:43:05Z
    date available2017-05-08T20:43:05Z
    date copyrightSeptember 2005
    date issued2005
    identifier other%28asce%290733-9364%282005%29131%3A9%28963%29.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/24586
    description abstractIf a project is implemented using a project-finance approach, the debt service payment relies solely on the project cash flows and its assets. This paper identifies, quantifies, and evaluates major financial risks associated with project-financed toll road projects in Indonesia. Ordering payments by priority level, subject to cash availability, enables risk to be evaluated from the different perspectives of multiple parties involved. The paper makes use of Latin Hypercube simulations for risk analysis because they deal with problems involving large and complex systems. To better illustrate the concept, a case study is presented. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of delay-in-adjustment risk and of the adoption of a new regulation related to the toll adjustment is performed and discussed. Simulation results show that the project sponsor fares worse as delay-in-adjustment risk increases but that the creditor can fare better, given that the risk level is low or moderate. Output statistics also reveal that the adoption of the new regulation has negative impact on the project cash flows from both the project sponsor’s and the creditor’s perspectives under different scenarios associated with delay-in-adjustment risk.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleFinancial Risk Analysis of Project Finance in Indonesian Toll Roads
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume131
    journal issue9
    journal titleJournal of Construction Engineering and Management
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:9(963)
    treeJournal of Construction Engineering and Management:;2005:;Volume ( 131 ):;issue: 009
    contenttypeFulltext
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