Lessons Learned from Missed Predictions

Abstract

This paper focuses on the broad factors critical to the prediction process that govern the quality of predictions of the geotechnical performance of completed structures. After a discussion of these critical factors, a series of examples is described to show performance that deviated from prediction, and the probable causes of the variances are discussed. Minimal effort is made in the paper to improve the technical aspect of the predictive method. The importance of judgment (i.e. the questioning of each aspect of the prediction process) and intuition in development of geotechnical predictions is emphasized. Some kinds of predictions for which success is expected to be limited are identified. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the development of good judgment.