Earthquake‐Induced Permanent Deformations: Probabilistic Approach

Abstract

A simple procedure for estimating earthquake‐induced permanent deformations of earth dams, embankments and slopes is presented. The analytical model is based on computed permanent deformations obtained by using Newmark's sliding‐block analysis and actual recorded acceleration time histories. The model incorporates the effect of earthquake magnitude through the use of equivalent uniform cycles of motion. Uncertainties in the model and the parameters used are accounted for through the use of modeling error theory. Normalized plots and a computer program are presented that provide the probability that the permanent deformation of a critical sliding mass will exceed a specified value. The results from this probabilistic procedure can be expressed in terms of damage probabilities in the form of a seismic performance analysis matrix. The use of a seismic performance analysis matrix in an overall seismic risk analysis for an earth dam, embankment or a slopes is described in a companion paper.