Multiple Simulation Analysis for Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Integration

Abstract

One of the major goals of the construction industry today is the quantification and minimization of the risk associated with construction engineering performance. When specifically considering the planning of construction projects, one way to control risk is through the development of reliable project cost estimates and schedules. Two techniques available for achieving this goal are range estimating and probabilistic scheduling. This paper looks at the integration of these techniques as a means of further controlling the risk inherent in the undertaking of construction projects. Least-squares linear regression is first considered as a means of relating the data obtained from the application of these techniques. However, because of various limitations, the application of linear regression was not considered the most appropriate means of relating the results of range estimating and probabilistic scheduling. Integration of these techniques was, therefore, achieved through the development of a new procedure called the multiple simulation analysis technique. This new procedure combines the results of range estimating and probabilistic scheduling in order to quantify the relationship existing between them. Having the ability to accurately quantify this relationship enables the selection of high percentile level values for the project cost estimate and schedule simultaneously.