A Comparative Simulation Study of the Annual Maxima and the Peaks Over Threshold Methods

Abstract

In order to assess their relative merits in the context of the determination of metocean extremes, the annual maxima (AM) and the peaks over threshold (POT) approaches are compared in terms of their accuracy in estimating exceedance probabilities on the basis of time series with various lengths and with characteristic that mimic those of real time series, such as nonstationarity and serial dependence. Based on the results of this study, the use of the POT approach is recommended. Furthermore, the method of probability weighted moments (PWMs) is recommended for the estimation of the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD).