Statistical Uncertainties in Wave Heights and Combined Loads on Offshore Structures

Abstract

Probabilistic models of combined environmental variables are shown, and their effect on the probability distribution of annual maximum base shear is estimated. A new “generalized Gumbel” model is introduced for the critical wave height parameter. By preserving higher statistical moments, this model better follows extreme storm events. Uncertainty in this model is included through statistical uncertainty in these moments. Corresponding reliability confidence intervals are also shown as a function of the sample size of hindcast data. Finally, models of the non-Gaussian crest and the drag parameter are found to be of similar importance in predicting the 100-yr base shear.