Time Series Control Charts for Correlated and Contaminated Data

Abstract

This paper discusses the development of control charts for correlated and contaminated data. For illustration the charts were applied to a set of maximum principal-stress data at two locations on a blast furnace shell. The Dynamic Data System (DDS) approach was used to model the correlated data which contained several types of discrepancies. After the standard DDS models were found, control charts for the averages and variances of the model residuals were constructed for two data sets. For more effective analysis, two methods for calculating the control limits for both charts are given. With this approach, dynamic process change, such as an increase in the production rate or the wearing out of the sacrificial lining, can be detected and separated from data with collection errors from instrument malfunctions. Furthermore, the tap hole opening timing is identified from the DDS model parameters, to help verify the time series model.