Abstract: We have documented with the observed Northern Hemispheric 500 mb geopotential height data for ten winter seasons that traveling storm tracks exist downstream of the troughs of traveling low-frequency waves. The relation ...

Abstract: The performance of ridge regression methods for consolidation of multiple seasonal ensemble prediction systems is analyzed. The methods are applied to predict SST in the tropical Pacific based on ensembles from the Development ...

Abstract: The time-mean tropical surface momentum balance is investigated with a simple model that calculates tropical surface winds from time mean sea level pressure fields. The model domain is the global tropical strip centered ...

Abstract: A special composite technique (?phase shifting? method) that records both the low- and high-frequency transient activity throughout the troposphere in a framework moving with an individual low-frequency wave of 500-mb ...

Abstract: A nearly complete vorticity equation is used to diagnose the tendency components of the low-frequency variations of the 500-mb streamfunction induced by various internal linear-nonlinear interaction processes. With the aid ...

Abstract: A 10-year run was made with a reduced resolution (T40) version of NMC's medium range forecast model. The 12 monthly mean surface pressure fields averaged over 10 years are used to study the climatological seasonal ...

Abstract: Teleconnection patterns have been extensively investigated, mostly with linear analysis tools. The lesser-known asymmetric characteristics between positive and negative phases of prominent teleconnections are explored here. ...

Abstract: etrospective forecasts of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have been analyzed out to 45 days from 1999 to 2009 with four members (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) each day. The new version of CFS [CFS, version 2 ...

Abstract: It has been observed by many that skill of categorical forecasts, when decomposed into the contributions from each category separately, tends to be low, if not absent or negative, in the ?near normal? (N) category. We have ...

Abstract: A probability forecast has advantages over a deterministic forecast as the former offers information about the probabilities of various possible future states of the atmosphere. As physics-based numerical models find their ...