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RISForecast Accuracy with Optimum Vertical Model Truncation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model 1 was used as an experimental prediction model to assess the value of reassigning model levels in the vertical based on an optimizing hypothesis. The ...
Development of Verification Methodology for Extreme Weather Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n 2006, the statistical postprocessing of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) was implemented to enhance ...
Precipitation Calibration Based on the Frequency-Matching Method
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: postprocessing technique is employed to correct model bias for precipitation fields in real time based on a comparison of the frequency distributions of observed and forecast precipitation amounts. Essentially, a calibration ...
Tracking and Verification of East Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NCEP Global Ensemble: Case Studies during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study evaluates the performance of the NCEP global ensemble forecast system in predicting the genesis and evolution of five named tropical cyclones and two unnamed nondeveloping tropical systems during the NASA African ...
The Use of Ensembles to Identify Forecasts with Small and Large Uncertainty
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In the past decade ensemble forecasting has developed into an integral part of numerical weather prediction. Flow-dependent forecast probability distributions can be readily generated from an ensemble, allowing for the ...
Improvement of Statistical Postprocessing Using GEFS Reforecast Information
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) generated a multidecadal (from 1985 to present) ensemble reforecast database for the 2012 version of the Global Ensemble ...
Ensemble Transform with 3D Rescaling Initialization Method
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he ensemble transform with rescaling (ETR) method has been used to produce fast-growing components of analysis error in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The rescaling mask contained in the ETR method ...
Bias Correction for Global Ensemble Forecast
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he main task of this study is to introduce a statistical postprocessing algorithm to reduce the bias in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) ensemble forecasts ...
A Comparison of Perturbations from an Ensemble Transform and an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: wo perturbation generation schemes, the ensemble transformation with rescaling (ETR) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are compared for the NCEP operational environment for the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). ...
The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The potential economic benefit associated with the use of an ensemble of forecasts versus anequivalent or higher-resolution control forecast is discussed. Neither forecast systems are post-processed,except a simple calibration ...