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RISAutomatic and Probabilistic Foehn Diagnosis with a Statistical Mixture Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: iagnosing foehn winds from weather station data downwind of topographic obstacles requires distinguishing them from other downslope winds, particularly nocturnal ones driven by radiative cooling. An automatic classification ...
Somewhere Over the Rainbow: How to Make Effective Use of Colors in Meteorological Visualizations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: esults of many atmospheric science applications are processed graphically. Visualizations are a powerful tool to display and communicate data. However, to create effective figures, a wide scope of challenges has to be ...
Simultaneous Ensemble Post-Processing for Multiple Lead Times with Standardized Anomalies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: eparate statistical models are typically fit for each forecasting lead time to post-process numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble forecasts. Using standardized anomalies of both NWP values and observations eliminates ...
Nonhomogeneous Boosting for Predictor Selection in Ensemble Postprocessing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: onhomogeneous regression is often used to statistically postprocess ensemble forecasts. Usually only ensemble forecasts of the predictand variable are used as input, but other potentially useful information sources are ...
Fine-Tuning Nonhomogeneous Regression for Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts: Unanimous Predictions, Heavy Tails, and Link Functions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractRaw ensemble forecasts of precipitation amounts and their forecast uncertainty have large errors, especially in mountainous regions where the modeled topography in the numerical weather prediction model and real ...
Heteroscedastic Extended Logistic Regression for Postprocessing of Ensemble Guidance
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: o achieve well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are often statistically postprocessed. One recent ensemble-calibration method is extended logistic regression, which extends the popular logistic ...
Ensemble Postprocessing of Daily Precipitation Sums over Complex Terrain Using Censored High-Resolution Standardized Anomalies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: robabilistic forecasts provided by numerical ensemble prediction systems have systematic errors and are typically underdispersive. This is especially true over complex topography with extensive terrain-induced small-scale ...
Extending Extended Logistic Regression: Extended versus Separate versus Ordered versus Censored
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: xtended logistic regression is a recent ensemble calibration method that extends logistic regression to provide full continuous probability distribution forecasts. It assumes conditional logistic distributions for the ...
Probabilistic Forecasting of Thunderstorms in the Eastern Alps
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractA probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based Austrian Lightning Detection and Information ...