Abstract: A fully coupled data assimilation (CDA) system, consisting of an ensemble filter applied to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory?s global fully coupled climate model (CM2), has been developed to facilitate the detection ...

Abstract: Nobody anticipated that El Niño would be weak and prolonged in 1992, but brief and intense in 1997/98. Why are various El Niño episodes so different, and so difficult to predict? The answer involves the important role ...

Abstract: As a first step toward coupled ocean?atmosphere data assimilation, a parallelized ensemble filter is implemented in a new stochastic hybrid coupled model. The model consists of a global version of the GFDL Modular Ocean ...

Abstract: A common practice in the design of forecast models for ENSO is to couple ocean general circulation models to simple atmospheric models. Therefore, by construction these models (known as hybrid ENSO models) do not resolve ...

Abstract: ecadal prediction experiments were conducted as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using the GFDL Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1) forecast system. The abrupt warming of the North Atlantic ...

Abstract: ropical cyclones (TCs) are a hazard to life and property and a prominent element of the global climate system; therefore, understanding and predicting TC location, intensity, and frequency is of both societal and scientific ...