Abstract: This paper describes validation tests of the Canadian Updateable Model Output Statistics (UMOS) system against the perfect prognosis forecast system and forecasts of weather elements from the operational numerical weather ...

Abstract: The use of model output statistics (MOS) in operational weather element prediction has been hindered since the mid-1980s by frequent changes in the operational numerical weather prediction models that supply the predictors ...

Abstract: A comparatively long period of relative stability in the evolution of the Canadian Ensemble Forecast System was exploited to compile a large homogeneous set of precipitation forecasts. The probability of exceedance of a ...

Abstract: Kernel density estimation is employed to fit smooth probabilistic models to precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system. An intuitive nonparametric technique, kernel density estimation has become a ...

Abstract: Using a Bayesian context, new measures of accuracy and skill are proposed to verify weather element forecasts from ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with respect to individual observations. The new scores are in the form ...

Abstract: Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a way of correcting underdispersion in ensemble forecasts. BMA is a standard statistical procedure for combining predictive distributions from different sources. ...

Abstract: Statistical models valid May?September were developed to predict the probability of lightning in 3-h intervals using observations from the North American Lightning Detection Network and predictors derived from Global ...