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RISOn “Field Significance” and the False Discovery Rate
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The conventional approach to evaluating the joint statistical significance of multiple hypothesis tests (i.e., ?field,? or ?global,? significance) in meteorology and climatology is to count the number of individual (or ...
Realizations of Daily Weather in Forecast Seasonal Climate
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Stochastic daily weather time series models (??weather generators??) are parameterized consistent with both local climate and probabilistic seasonal forecasts. Both single-station weather generators, and spatial networks ...
Projecting “Normals” in a Nonstationary Climate
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: limate ?normals? are statistical estimates of present and/or near-future climate means for such quantities as seasonal temperature or precipitation. In a changing climate, simply averaging a large number of previous years ...
“The Stippling Shows Statistically Significant Grid Points”: How Research Results are Routinely Overstated and Overinterpreted, and What to Do about It
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: pecial care must be exercised in the interpretation of multiple statistical hypothesis tests?for example, when each of many tests corresponds to a different location. Correctly interpreting results of multiple simultaneous ...
Resampling Hypothesis Tests for Autocorrelated Fields
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Presently employed hypothesis tests for multivariate geophysical data (e.g., climatic fields) require the assumption that either the data are serially uncorrelated, or spatially uncorrelated, or both. Good methods have ...
Diagnostic Verification of the Climate Prediction Center Long-Lead Outlooks, 1995–98
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The performance of the Climate Prediction Center?s long-lead forecasts for the period 1995?98 is assessed through a diagnostic verification, which involves examination of the full joint frequency distributions of the ...
Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover, Indo-Pacific SSTs, and Recent Trend as Statistical Predictors of Seasonal North American Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: aximum covariance analysis (MCA) forecasts of gridded seasonal North American temperatures are computed for January?March 1991 through February?April 2014, using as predictors Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), ...
On Interpretation of Probabilistic Climate Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
The Minimum Spanning Tree Histogram as a Verification Tool for Multidimensional Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The minimum spanning tree (MST) histogram is a multivariate extension of the ideas behind the conventional scalar rank histogram. It tabulates the frequencies, over n forecast occasions, of the rank of the MST length for ...
On the Reliability of the Rank Histogram
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Ensemble consistency is a name for the condition that an observation being forecast by a dynamical ensemble is statistically indistinguishable from the ensemble members. This statistical indistinguishability condition is ...