Abstract: Historically, the Gulf of Mexico has been considered a primary source of water vapor that influences the weather for much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Although severe thunderstorms and tornadoes occur ...

Abstract: Tornado watch and severe local storm outlook verification statistics reveal the trends in forecast skill at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. The skill level of the outlook has been steadily increasing since 1973. ...

Abstract: A six-member ensemble is developed in which the ensemble members only vary in their model physical process parameterization schemes. This approach is accomplished by mixing three different convective parameterization schemes ...

Abstract: Parameterized updraft mass flux, available as a unique predictive field from the Kain?Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization, is presented as a potentially valuable predictor of convective intensity. The KF scheme is ...

Abstract: No abstract available.

Abstract: Proximity sounding studies typically seek to optimize several trade-offs that involve somewhat arbitrary definitions of how to define a ?proximity sounding.? More restrictive proximity criteria, which presumably produce ...

Abstract: From 15 July through 30 September of 2001, an ensemble cloud-scale model was run for the Storm Prediction Center on a daily basis. Each ensemble run consisted of 78 members whose initial conditions were derived from the ...

Abstract: The tornado events of 1982 are reviewed. Significant and interesting aspects of the 1047 reported storms are noted. The synoptic patterns associated with four major tornado days are examined.

Abstract: The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different ...

Abstract: ith the advent of convection-allowing NWP models (CAMs) comes the potential for new forms of forecast guidance. While CAMs lack the required resolution to simulate many severe phenomena associated with convection (e.g., ...