Abstract: The correspondence ratio is developed to evaluate output from an ensemble of numerical weather prediction models. This measure is a simple extension of the threat score, or critical success index, to more than two fields ...

Abstract: Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have become a common analysis tool for evaluating forecast discrimination: the ability of a forecast system to distinguish between events and nonevents. As is implicit in that ...

Abstract: The process of tropopause folding is studied in the context of the life cycle of baroclinic waves. Previous studies of upper-level frontogenesis have emphasized the role of the vertical circulation in driving stratospheric ...

Abstract: Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a dominant climatological feature of the central United States and are responsible for a substantial fraction of warm-season rainfall. Yet very little is known about the predictability ...

Abstract: Forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction?s experimental short-range ensemble system are examined and compared with a single run from a higher-resolution model using similar computational resources. ...

Abstract: Short-range ensemble forecasting is extended to a critical winter weather problem: forecasting precipitation type. Forecast soundings from the operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system are combined with five ...

Abstract: Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a dominant climatological feature of the central United States and are responsible for a substantial fraction of warm season rainfall. Yet very little is known about the predictability ...

Abstract: During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4-km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast ...