Search
CSV
RISInformation-Based Skill Scores for Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The information content, that is, the predictive capability, of a forecast system is often quantified with skill scores. This paper introduces two ranked mutual information skill (RMIS) scores, RMISO and RMISY, for the ...
Predictability of Precipitation in a Cloud-Resolving Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An ensemble methodology is developed and tested to objectively isolate and quantify meso-?-scale predictability limitations in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The methodology involves conducting an ensemble of limited-area ...
The Impact of Moist Singular Vectors and Horizontal Resolution on Short-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts for Two European Winter Storms
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of different initial condition perturbation methods and horizontal resolutions on short-range limited-area ensemble predictions for two severe winter storms. The methodology consists of 51-member ...
On the Time Evolution of Limited-Area Ensemble Variance: Case Studies with the Convection-Permitting Ensemble COSMO-E
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Dynamical processes determining the time evolution of difference kinetic energy (DKE) in a limited-area domain are investigated with the convection-permitting ensemble model COSMO-E for a forecasting period of 4 days. DKE ...
Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area ...
MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). ...