Abstract: A representative temperature record for New Zealand based on station data from 1853 onward is used in conjunction with four coupled climate models to investigate the causes of recent warming over this small midlatitude ...

Abstract: Using an optimal detection technique and climate change simulations produced with two versions of two GCMs, we have assessed the causes of twentieth-century temperature changes from global to regional scales. Our analysis ...

Abstract: A probability distribution for values of the effective climate sensitivity, with a lower bound of 1.6 K (5th percentile), is obtained on the basis of the increase in ocean heat content in recent decades from analyses of ...

Abstract: A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in ...

Abstract: Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided ...