Abstract: This study investigates ways of quantifying the skill in forecasts of dichotomous weather events. The odds ratio, widely used in medical studies, can provide a powerful way of testing the association between categorical ...

Abstract: The response of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled ocean-atmosphere R15, 9-level GCM to gradually increasing C02 amounts is analyzed with emphasis on the changes in the stationary waves and storm ...

Abstract: Verification is an important part of any forecasting system. It is usually achieved by computing the value of some measure or score that indicates how good the forecasts are. Many possible verification measures have been ...

Abstract: tatistical relationships between future and historical model runs in multimodel ensembles (MMEs) are increasingly exploited to make more constrained projections of climate change. However, such emergent constraints may be ...

Abstract: erifying forecasts of rare events is challenging, in part because traditional performance measures degenerate to trivial values as events become rarer. The extreme dependency score was proposed recently as a nondegenerating ...

Abstract: Often there is a need to consider spatial weighting in methods for finding spatial patterns in climate data. The focus of this paper is on techniques that maximize variance, such as empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). ...

Abstract: A simple linear stochastic climate model of extratropical wintertime ocean?atmosphere coupling is used to diagnose the daily interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere in a fully coupled general circulation model. ...