Abstract: A statistical model is presented of a recently compiled record of monthly extratropical storm counts for the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States for the period 1942?83. The counts are modeled as a Poisson process with ...

Abstract: Climate records sometimes have the form of point processes (i.e., observations of the times of occurrence of a specified type of event). A central problem in the analysis of point process data is the estimation of the rate ...

Abstract: A Bayesian approach to statistical inference about climate change based on the two-phase regression model is presented. This approach is useful when nonobservational information is available about possible climate change. ...

Abstract: There is considerable interest in detecting a long-term trend in hurricane intensity possibly related to large-scale ocean warming. This effort is complicated by the paucity of wind speed measurements for hurricanes occurring ...

Abstract: This note describes and applies a test for trend in the frequency of El Niño events over the period 1525?1987. Although there appears to have been a significant increase in frequency over this period, this result is ...

Abstract: A statistical test for detecting a change in the behavior of an annual temperature series is presented. The test is based on the two-phase regression model. By trading the hypothesized time of change as an unknown parameter, ...

Abstract: An approach to reconstructing a partially observed annual time series of tropical cyclone counts is presented. The approach is based on a simple model of the time series of true counts and on a simple model of the way in ...

Abstract: A simple, informal method is presented for discriminating between competing models of trend in a climate record. The method is applied to a tide gauge record of relative see level at Brest for the period 1807?1970. Although ...

Abstract: Historic records of global or hemispheric temperature are an important source of information about climate change. In order to analyze such records statistically, it is necessary to have some knowledge about the behavior ...

Abstract: The record of annual counts of basinwide North Atlantic hurricanes is incomplete prior to 1946. This has restricted efforts to identify a long-term trend in hurricane activity to the postwar period. In contrast, the complete ...