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RISThe Madden–Julian Oscillation Simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Model: The Importance of Stratiform Heating
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study investigates the capability for simulating the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) in a series of atmosphere?ocean coupled and uncoupled simulations using NCEP operational general circulation models. The effect of ...
Assessing Future Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using CMIP3 Models: Results from the Best Model Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: uture changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) have been estimated from the six best-performing models in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) included in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) ...
Mechanisms for a PNA-like teleconnection pattern in response to the MJO
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: inematic mechanisms of the Pacific/North American (PNA)-like teleconnection pattern induced by the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is examined using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and a barotropic Rossby ...
Initiation of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation: Dynamic Contribution by Potential Vorticity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: otential vorticity (PV) thinking conceptually connects the upper-level (upper troposphere in the extratropics and middle troposphere for the tropics) dynamical process to the lower-level process. Here, the initiation ...
Estimate of the Predictability of Boreal Summer and Winter Intraseasonal Oscillations from Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ropical intraseasonal variability (TISV) shows two dominant modes: the boreal winter Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). The two modes differ in intensity, frequency, ...
Predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Estimated Using Observational Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Existing numerical models produce large error in simulating the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO), thereby underestimating its predictability. In this paper, the predictability limit of the MJO is determined by the nonlinear ...
The Development of a Statistical Forecast Model for Changma
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: orecasting year-to-year variations in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is one of the most challenging tasks in climate prediction because the predictors are not sufficiently well known and the forecast skill ...
Physical–Statistical Model for Summer Extreme Temperature Events over South Korea
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Extreme temperature events have a significant impact on human life and property. Since the Korean Peninsula is affected by the high variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system, it is difficult to predict extreme ...
The Global Atmospheric Circulation Response to Tropical Diabatic Heating Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Northern Winter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he detailed dynamical mechanisms of the upper-tropospheric circulation response to the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) convection are examined by integrating a primitive equation model. A series of initial-value calculations ...
Sensitivity of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation to the Location of the Tibetan Plateau
Publisher: American Meteorological Society