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Objective Estimation of the 24-h Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new product for estimating the 24-h probability of TC formation in individual 5° ? 5° subregions of the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific tropical basins is developed. This product uses ...
Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty into a Decision-Support Application for Power Outage Modeling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: of decision-support systems, such as those employed by energy and utility companies, use the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of track and intensity to inform operational decision making as a hurricane approaches. ...
Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly than average tropical ...
Untitled
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) forecasting scheme uses various large-scale meteorological parameters as well as proxies for initial condition uncertainty and atmospheric flow stability to provide ...
Multidisciplinary Analysis of an Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Warnings
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: On 22 May 2008, a strong tornado?rated EF3 on the enhanced Fujita scale, with winds estimated between 136 and 165 mi h?1 (61 and 74 m s?1)?caused extensive damage along a 55-km track through northern Colorado. The worst ...
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change before U.S. Gulf Coast Landfall
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Tropical cyclone intensity change remains a forecasting challenge with important implications for such vulnerable areas as the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis of 1979?2008 Gulf tropical cyclones during their ...
Objective Guidance for Use in Setting Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Department of Defense uses a Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TC-CORs) system to prepare bases and evacuate assets and personnel in advance of adverse weather associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). TC-CORs ...