Search
Now showing items 1-10 of 14
Statistical Corrections to Numerical Predictions. Part IV
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The NMC Barotropic-Mesh Model has been used to test a statistical correction procedure, designated as M-II, that was developed in Schemm et al. In the present application, statistical corrections at 12 h resulted in ...
Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Drought over the United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Composites based on observations and model outputs from the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) drought experiments were used to examine the impact of El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic ...
Characteristics of Drought and Persistent Wet Spells over the United States in the Atmosphere–Land–Ocean Coupled Model Experiments
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: tmosphere?land?ocean coupled model simulations are examined to diagnose the ability of models to simulate drought and persistent wet spells over the United States. A total of seven models are selected for this study. They ...
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in Response to the MJO in NOAA’s CFS Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is known to exert some control on the variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity within a hurricane season. To explore the possibility of better TC predictions based on ...
The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System: The Effect of Sea Surface Temperature
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Observational evidence has indicated the important role of the interaction of the atmosphere with the sea surface in the development and maintenance of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). However, improvements ...
Long-Lead Seasonal Forecast Skill in Far Eastern Asia Using Canonical Correlation Analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Canonical correlation analysis (CCA), a linear statistical method designed to find correlated patterns between predictor and predictand fields, is applied to the eastern Asian region of Korea and Japan. The cross-validation ...
A Statistical Extended-Range Tropical Forecast Model Based on the Slow Evolution of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In this study, a statistical model is developed that exploits the slow evolution of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) to predict tropical rainfall variability at long lead times (i.e., 5?20 days). The model is based on ...
Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This work examines the performance of Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP?s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated ...