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Statistical Corrections to Numerical Predictions. Part IV
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The NMC Barotropic-Mesh Model has been used to test a statistical correction procedure, designated as M-II, that was developed in Schemm et al. In the present application, statistical corrections at 12 h resulted in ...
Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Drought over the United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Composites based on observations and model outputs from the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) drought experiments were used to examine the impact of El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic ...
Persistence and Predictability in a Perfect Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The relationship between predictability and persistence is examined using a realistic two-level general circulation model (GCM). Predictability is measured by the average divergence of ensembles of solutions starting from ...
Dynamically Stratified Monte Carlo Forecasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new method for performing Monte Carlo forecasts is introduced. The method, called dynamic stratification, selects initial perturbations based on a stratification of the error distribution. A simple implementation is ...
Characteristics of Drought and Persistent Wet Spells over the United States in the Atmosphere–Land–Ocean Coupled Model Experiments
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: tmosphere?land?ocean coupled model simulations are examined to diagnose the ability of models to simulate drought and persistent wet spells over the United States. A total of seven models are selected for this study. They ...
A GCM Study of the Teleconnections between the Continental Climate of Africa and Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In this case study the role of global SST anomaly forcing in promoting the extreme climatic conditions that prevailed in Africa during the years of 1950 and 1973 is examined. In 1950 abundant rainfall was observed over ...
Impact of Model Resolution on the Prediction of Summer Precipitation over the United States and Mexico
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Summer seasonal simulations for selected years were performed using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) at high (T126L28) and low (T62L28) resolutions, and the NCEP 80-km regional spectral model (RSM) nested in the T62 ...
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in Response to the MJO in NOAA’s CFS Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is known to exert some control on the variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity within a hurricane season. To explore the possibility of better TC predictions based on ...