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A Multimodel Study of Parametric Uncertainty in Predictions of Climate Response to Rising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: One tool for studying uncertainties in simulations of future climate is to consider ensembles of general circulation models where parameterizations have been sampled within their physical range of plausibility. This study ...
Model-Specific Radiative Kernels for Calculating Cloud and Noncloud Climate Feedbacks
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: adiative kernels have become a common tool for evaluating and comparing radiative feedbacks to climate change in different general circulation models. However, kernel feedback calculations are inaccurate for simulations ...
Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he diverse set of Earth system models used to conduct the CMIP5 ensemble can partly sample the uncertainties in future climate projections. However, combining those projections is complicated by the fact that models developed ...
A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he collection of Earth system models available in the archive of phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) represents, at least to some degree, a sample of uncertainty of future climate evolution. The presence of duplicated code as well as ...
Climate Feedbacks in CCSM3 under Changing CO2 Forcing. Part I: Adapting the Linear Radiative Kernel Technique to Feedback Calculations for a Broad Range of Forcings
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: limate feedbacks vary strongly among climate models and continue to represent a major source of uncertainty in estimates of the response of climate to anthropogenic forcings. One method to evaluate feedbacks in global ...
Climate Feedbacks in CCSM3 under Changing CO2 Forcing. Part II: Variation of Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity with Forcing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: re equilibrium climate sensitivity and the associated radiative feedbacks a constant property of the climate system, or do they change with forcing magnitude and base climate? Using the radiative kernel technique, feedbacks ...
Constraints on Model Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Role of Subgrid-Scale Processes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A climate model emulator is developed using neural network techniques and trained with the data from the multithousand-member climateprediction.net perturbed physics GCM ensemble. The method recreates nonlinear interactions ...
Climate Change Projections in CESM1(CAM5) Compared to CCSM4
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: uture climate change projections for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are presented for the Community Earth System Model version 1 that includes the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 ...
Method Uncertainty Is Essential for Reliable Confidence Statements of Precipitation Projections
Publisher: American Meteorological Society