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RISOn the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Northwest Pacific Basin
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new Northwest Pacific climatology and persistence (CLIPER) model is derived with historical tropical cyclone tracks during the satellite and aircraft reconnaissance era (1970?95). The new CLIPER extends the forecasts ...
A Consensus Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been forecasting gale force wind radii for many years, and more recently (starting in 2004) began routine postanalysis or ?best tracking? of the maximum radial extent of gale [34 knots ...
After a Decade Are Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Gale Force Wind Radii Forecasts Now Skillful?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a long history of forecasting the radial extent of gale force or 34-knot (kt; where 1 kt = 0.51 m s?1) winds for tropical cyclones in their area of responsibility. These are referred ...
The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (Version 3.2)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is software intended to automate and optimize much of the tropical cyclone forecasting process. The system features global tracking capability, a suite of objective ...
Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Error
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he extent to which the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast error of IVCN and S5YY, consensus models routinely used by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, respectively, ...
Consistent Tropical Cyclone Wind and Wave Forecasts for the U.S. Navy
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A new algorithm to generate wave heights consistent with tropical cyclone official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has been developed. The process involves generating synthetic observations from the ...
Operational Performance of a New Barotropic Model (WBAR) in the Western North Pacific Basin
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Weber barotropic model (WBAR) was originally developed using predefined 850?200-hPa analyses and forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecasting System. The WBAR tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast performance was found ...
An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The current version of the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) used operationally at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to provide 12-hourly tropical cyclone intensity guidance through day 5 is ...
Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The Systematic Approach Forecast Aid (SAFA) has been in use at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center since the 2000 western North Pacific season. SAFA is a system designed for determination of erroneous 72-h track forecasts ...
A History of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting skill of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and their consensus is examined for the western North Pacific from 1992 to 2002. The TC track forecasting skill of ...