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RISIntercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods: Identifying Skillful Spatial Scales Using the Fractions Skill Score
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The fractions skill score (FSS) was one of the measures that formed part of the Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods project. The FSS was used to assess a common dataset that consisted of real and ...
Scale-Selective Verification of Rainfall Accumulations from High-Resolution Forecasts of Convective Events
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The development of NWP models with grid spacing down to ?1 km should produce more realistic forecasts of convective storms. However, greater realism does not necessarily mean more accurate precipitation forecasts. The rapid ...
Impact of Data Assimilation on Forecasting Convection over the United Kingdom Using a High-Resolution Version of the Met Office Unified Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A high-resolution data assimilation system has been implemented and tested within a 4-km grid length version of the Met Office Unified Model (UM). A variational analysis scheme is used to correct larger scales using ...
MOGREPS-UK Convection-Permitting Ensemble Products for Surface Water Flood Forecasting: Rationale and First Results
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: looding is one of the costliest hazards in the United Kingdom. A large part of the annual flood damage is caused by surface water flooding that is a direct result of intense rainfall. Traditional catchment-based approaches ...
Combination of Mesoscale and Synoptic Mechanisms for Triggering an Isolated Thunderstorm: Observational Case Study of CSIP IOP 1
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An isolated thunderstorm formed in the southern United Kingdom on 15 June 2005 and moved through the area where a large number of observational instruments were deployed as part of the Convective Storm Initiation Project. ...
The Surprising Role of Orography in the Initiation of an Isolated Thunderstorm in Southern England
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Many factors, both mesoscale and larger scale, often come together in order for a particular convective initiation to take place. The authors describe a modeling study of a case from the Convective Storms Initiation Project ...
Realism of Rainfall in a Very High-Resolution Regional Climate Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he realistic representation of rainfall on the local scale in climate models remains a key challenge. Realism encompasses the full spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, and is a key indicator of model skill in ...
Predictability of Frontal Waves and Cyclones
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he statistical properties and skill in predictions of objectively identified and tracked cyclonic features (frontal waves and cyclones) are examined in the 15-day version of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble ...
A Spatial View of Ensemble Spread in Convection Permitting Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ith movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To ...
Large-Scale Predictors for Extreme Hourly Precipitation Events in Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractMidlatitude extreme precipitation events are caused by well-understood meteorological drivers, such as vertical instability and low pressure systems. In principle, dynamical weather and climate models behave in the ...