Abstract: AbstractThe frequency of stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs) is an important characteristic of the coupled stratosphere?troposphere system. However, many modern climate models are unable to reproduce the observed ...

Abstract: Information about climate and how it responds to increased greenhouse gas concentrations depends heavily on insight gained from numerical simulations by coupled climate models. The confidence placed in quantitative estimates ...

Abstract: No Abstract available.

Abstract: rojections of future climate change are increasingly based on the output of many different models. Typically, the mean over all model simulations is considered as the optimal prediction, with the underlying assumption that ...

Abstract: AbstractThis study investigates the climatological frequency distribution of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). General circulation models (GCMs) tend to produce SSW maxima later in winter than observations, which has ...

Abstract: It is suggested that the slow evolution of the tropical Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) has the potential to improve the predictability of tropical and extratropical circulation systems at lead times beyond 2 weeks. In ...

Abstract: The sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions of monthly mean tropical long-range forecasts (1?14 weeks) during Northern Hemisphere winter is studied with a numerical model. Five predictability experiments with different ...