Abstract: Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that ...

Abstract: An analog model is used to predict the tropical cyclone tracks in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins. The model is self-adapting in its search of ensembles of optimal historic analogs by creating a norm that minimizes ...

Abstract: he atmospheric westerly flow in the North Atlantic (NA) sector is dominated by atmospheric waves or eddies generating via momentum flux convergence, the so-called eddy-driven jet. The position of this jet is variable and ...

Abstract: he inception of the Little Ice Age (~1400?1700 AD) is believed to have been driven by an interplay of external forcing and climate system internal variability. While the hemispheric signal seems to have been dominated by ...

Abstract: The response of the climate system to natural, external forcing during the Maunder Minimum (ca. a.d. 1645?1715) is investigated using a comprehensive climate model. An ensemble of six transient simulations is produced in ...

Abstract: Two statistical single-station short-term forecast schemes are introduced and applied to real-time weather prediction. A multiple regression model (R model) predicting the temperature anomaly and a multiple regression ...

Abstract: AbstractAtmospheric circulation types, blockings, and cyclones are central features of the extratropical flow and key to understanding the climate system. This study intercompares the representation of these features in ...

Abstract: bility of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied ...