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RISThe Skill of ECMWF Precipitation and Temperature Predictions in the Danube Basin as Forcings of Hydrological Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In this paper the suitability of ECMWF forecasts for hydrological applications is evaluated. This study focuses on three spatial scales: the upper Danube (which is upstream of Bratislava, Slovakia), the entire Danube ...
Verification of Heat Stress Thresholds for a Health-Based Heat-Wave Definition
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractHeat waves represent a threat to human health and excess mortality is one of the associated negative effects. A health-based definition for heat waves is therefore relevant, especially for early warning purposes, ...
Improving Weather Predictability by Including Land Surface Model Parameter Uncertainty
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he land surface forms an important component of Earth system models and interacts nonlinearly with other parts such as ocean and atmosphere. To capture the complex and heterogeneous hydrology of the land surface, land ...
Discrete Postprocessing of Total Cloud Cover Ensemble Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his paper presents an approach to postprocess ensemble forecasts for the discrete and bounded weather variable of total cloud cover. Two methods for discrete statistical postprocessing of ensemble predictions are tested: ...
Jumpiness in Ensemble Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Improving Forecasts of Biomass Burning Emissions with the Fire Weather Index
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractIn the absence of a dynamical fire model that could link the emissions to the weather dynamics and the availability of fuel, atmospheric composition models, such as the European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring ...
An Assessment of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for Water Vapor Transport during Boreal Winter
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractEarly awareness of extreme precipitation can provide the time necessary to make adequate event preparations. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), one tool that condenses the forecast ...
The Potential Predictability of Fire Danger Provided by Numerical Weather Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: global fire danger rating system driven by atmospheric model forcing has been developed with the aim of providing early warning information to civil protection authorities. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions ...
An Experiment on Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Management Using Monthly Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he use of probabilistic forecasts is necessary to take into account uncertainties and allow for optimal risk-based decisions in streamflow forecasting at monthly to seasonal lead times. Such probabilistic forecasts have ...
An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: easonal streamflow prediction skill can derive from catchment initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) and from the future seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) used to produce the hydrological forecasts. Although much effort ...