Abstract: Meteorology is a wonderfully interdisciplinary subject. But can nonlinear thinking about predictability of weather and climate contribute usefully to issues in fundamental physics? Although this might seem extremely unlikely ...

Abstract: The intense wavenumber-2 stratospheric warming of February 1979 is analyzed in a transformed Eulerian-mean formalism, and compared with diagnostics generated by the model warming of Dunkerton et al. (1981). Significant ...

Abstract: Properties of the quasi-geostrophic Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux for planetary scale motions are discussed, in order to clarify how these properties generalize from their beta-plane counterparts when no restriction on the ...

Abstract: The physical basis for extended-range prediction is explored using the famous three-component Lorenz convection model, taken as a conceptual representation of the chaotic extratropical circulation, and extended by coupling ...

Abstract: A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction is outlined, based on a treatment of climate as the attractor of a nonlinear dynamical system D with distinct quasi-stationary regimes. The main application is toward ...

Abstract: Carl-Gustaf Rossby's work leading to the dispersion equation for his eponymous atmospheric wave form was motivated by his quest to understand interrelationships between fluctuations in the zonal mean wind and the ...

Abstract: ct available. Read Tim Palmer's sci-fi story about climate prediction, "Sunrise," in the BAMS Web archive at doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3187.2.

Abstract: The local phase-space instability Of the atmospheric global circulation is Characterized by its (nonmodal) singular vectors. The formalism of singular vector analysis is described. The relations between singular vectors, ...

Abstract: The impact of ensemble size on the performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system (EPS) is analyzed. The skill of ensembles generated using 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 perturbed ...