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Updating Short-Term Probabilistic Weather Forecasts of Continuous Variables Using Recent Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: statistical postprocessing method for improving probabilistic forecasts of continuous weather variables, given recent observations, is presented. The method updates an existing probabilistic forecast by incorporating ...
Large-Scale Flow Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation and Atmospheric Rivers over Norway
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractA climatology of extreme cold season precipitation events in Norway from 1979 to 2014 is presented, based on the 99th percentile of the 24-h accumulated precipitation. Three regions, termed north, west, and south ...
Calibrated Probabilistic Hub-Height Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his work evaluates the use of a WRF ensemble for short-term, probabilistic, hub-height wind speed forecasts in complex terrain. Testing for probabilistic-forecast improvements is conducted by increasing the number of ...
Kalman Filter and Analog Schemes to Postprocess Numerical Weather Predictions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: wo new postprocessing methods are proposed to reduce numerical weather prediction?s systematic and random errors. The first method consists of running a postprocessing algorithm inspired by the Kalman filter (KF) through ...
Ensemble Prediction with Different Spatial Resolutions for the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games: The Effects of Calibration and Multimodel Approaches
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: hree ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with different grid spacings are compared and evaluated with respect to their ability to predict wintertime weather in complex terrain. The experiment period was two-and-a-half winter ...
Citizen Observations for Weather Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Verif: A Weather-Prediction Verification Tool for Effective Product Development
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
An Evaluation of Analog-Based Postprocessing Methods across Several Variables and Forecast Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ecently, two analog-based postprocessing methods were demonstrated to reduce the systematic and random errors from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model predictions of 10-m wind speed over the central United States. ...
FROST-2014: The Sochi Winter Olympics International Project
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he WMO WWRP project FROST-2014 (FROST - Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed) was targeted at the advancement and demonstration of state-of-the art nowcasting and short-range forecasting systems for winter ...