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RISAn Empirical Benchmark for Decadal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he suitability of a linear inverse model (LIM) as a benchmark for decadal surface temperature forecast skill is demonstrated. Constructed from the observed simultaneous and 1-yr lag covariability statistics of annually ...
Interannual to Decadal Predictability of Tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A multivariate empirical model is used to show that predictability of the dominant patterns of tropical and North Pacific oceanic variability, El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), ...
The Impact of Rapid Wind Variability upon Air–Sea Thermal Coupling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The basic effect of extratropical atmosphere?ocean thermal coupling is to enhance the variance of both anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and air temperatures (AIRT) due to a decreased energy flux between the ...
Rossby Wave Propagation and the Rapid Development of Upper-Level Anomalous Anticyclones during the 1988 U.S. Drought
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The upper-tropospheric circulation is investigated for the three months of April, May, and June 1988 during which the Great Plains region of the United States experienced one of its most severe droughts in history. It is ...
Tropical and Stratospheric Influences on Extratropical Short-Term Climate Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The relative impacts of tropical diabatic heating and stratospheric circulation anomalies on wintertime extratropical tropospheric variability are investigated in a linear inverse model (LIM) derived from the observed zero ...
The Impact of the Annual Cycle on the North Pacific/North American Response to Remote Low-Frequency Forcing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The impact of the climatological seasonally varying 300-mb flow on the North Pacific/North American response to remote anomalous forcing is considered in the context of a linear barotropic model. WKB theory suggests that ...
A Caveat Concerning Singular Value Decomposition
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An assessment is made of the ability of the singular value decomposition (SYD) technique to recover the relationship between two variables x and y from a time series of their observations. It is shown that SVD is rigorously ...
How Important Is Air–Sea Coupling in ENSO and MJO Evolution?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The effect of air?sea coupling on tropical climate variability is investigated in a coupled linear inverse model (LIM) derived from the simultaneous and 6-day lag covariances of observed 7-day running mean departures from ...
Stochastic Forcing of the Wintertime Extratropical Flow
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study is concerned with assessing the extent to which extratropical low-frequency variability may be viewed as a response to geographically coherent stochastic forcing. This issue is examined with a barotropic model ...
Investigating the Role of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling in the North Pacific Ocean
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: ir?sea interaction over the North Pacific is diagnosed using a simple, local coupled autoregressive model constructed from observed 7-day running-mean sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature TA anomalies ...