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Mesoscale Verification Using Meteorological Composites
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Mesoscale models are often used to explicitly predict discrete, highly structured phenomena. Information regarding the ability of the model to predict events as coherent entities is thus a useful statement of performance. ...
Application of the Composite Method to the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Dataset
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The composite method is applied to verify a series of idealized and real precipitation forecasts as part of the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project. The test cases range from simple geometric ...
Perspectives on Cloud Prediction, Postprocessing, and Verification for DoD Applications
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Applying a Neighborhood Fractions Sampling Approach as a Diagnostic Tool
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he fractions skill score (FSS) belongs to a class of spatial neighborhood techniques that measures forecast skill from samples of gridded forecasts and observations at increasing spatial scales. Each sample contains the ...
An Eulerian Framework for Event-Based Pattern Verification
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractWhen consulting a forecast, users often ask some variant of the following questions: Will an event of interest occur? If so, when will it occur? How long will it last? How intense will it be? Standard verification ...
Verification of Cloud Forecasts over the Eastern Pacific Using Passive Satellite Retrievals
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Operational cloud forecasts generated by the Coupled Ocean?Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)1 were verified over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The study focused on the accuracy of cloud forecasts associated with ...
Interactions between a Developing Mesoscale Convective System and Its Environment. Part II: Numerical Simulation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The 19 July 1993 mesoscale convective system (MCS), discussed in Part I, was simulated using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The model was initialized with variable physiographic and atmospheric data with ...
Evaluation of Heavy Precipitation Forecasts Using Composite-Based Methods: A Distributions-Oriented Approach
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Numerical forecasts of heavy warm-season precipitation events are verified using simple composite collection techniques. Various sampling methods and statistical measures are employed to evaluate the general characteristics ...
An Observational Analysis of a Developing Mesoscale Convective Complex
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Dual-Doppler radar, surface mesonet, satellite, and upper-air sounding data from the 1985 Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central field experiment are used to analyze the early growth stages of a mesoscale ...
Interactions between a Developing Mesoscale Convective System and Its Environment. Part I: Observational Analysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This paper is the first in a two part series in which the interactions between a growing mesoscale convective system (MCS) and its surrounding environment are investigated. The system studied here developed in northeastern ...