Abstract: The temperature forecasts of the Advanced Regional Prediction System are postprocessed by a neural network. Specifically, 31 stations are considered, and for each a neural network is developed. The nine input variables to ...

Abstract: The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a two-dimensional measure of classification performance. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a scalar measure gauging one facet of performance. In this short article, ...

Abstract: A set of 14 scalar, nonprobabilistic measures?some old, some new?is examined in the rare-event situation. The set includes measures of accuracy, association, discrimination, bias, and skill. It is found that all measures ...

Abstract: The transformation of a real, continuous variable into an event probability is reviewed from the Bayesian point of view, after which a Gaussian model is employed to derive an explicit expression for the probability. In ...

Abstract: he distinction between forecast quality and economic value in a cost?loss formulation is well known. Also well known is their complex relationship, even with some instances of a reversal between the two, where higher quality ...

Abstract: ensitivity analysis (SA) generally refers to an assessment of the sensitivity of the output(s) of some complex model with respect to changes in the input(s). Examples of inputs or outputs include initial state variables, ...

Abstract: Gandin and Murphy (GM) have shown that if a skill score is linear in the scoring matrix, and if the scoring matrix is symmetric, then in the two-event case there exists a unique, ?equitable? skill score, namely, the True ...

Abstract: The National Severe Storms Laboratory has developed algorithms that compute a number of Doppler radar and environmental attributes known to be relevant for the detection/prediction of severe hail. Based on these attributes, ...

Abstract: A statistical method referred to as cluster analysis is employed to identify features in forecast and observation fields. These features qualify as natural candidates for events or objects in terms of which verification ...

Abstract: The verification of a gridded forecast field, for example, one produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, cannot be performed on a gridpoint-by-gridpoint basis; that type of approach would ignore the spatial ...