Search
Now showing items 1-10 of 12
Important Factors in the Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Operational Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Validation Schemes for Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Evaluation of Operational Models for U.S. Landfalling Cases
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A scheme for validating quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for landfalling tropical cyclones is developed and presented here. This scheme takes advantage of the unique characteristics of tropical cyclone rainfall ...
The Use of Ensembles to Identify Forecasts with Small and Large Uncertainty
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In the past decade ensemble forecasting has developed into an integral part of numerical weather prediction. Flow-dependent forecast probability distributions can be readily generated from an ensemble, allowing for the ...
Short- and Medium-Range Prediction of Tropical and Transitioning Cyclone Tracks within the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) is examined in its ability to predict tropical cyclone and extratropical transition (ET) positions. Forecast and observed tracks are compared in Atlantic and western North ...
A Parametric Model for Predicting Hurricane Rainfall
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: This study documents a new parametric hurricane rainfall prediction scheme, based on the rainfall climatology and persistence model (R-CLIPER) used operationally in the Atlantic Ocean basin to forecast rainfall accumulations. ...
The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The past decade has been marked by significant advancements in numerical weather prediction of hurricanes, which have greatly contributed to the steady decline in forecast track error. Since its operational implementation ...
Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near?real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the ...
Modeling Extreme Rainfall, Winds, and Surge from Hurricane Isabel (2003)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: Landfalling tropical cyclones present major hazards for the eastern United States. Hurricane Isabel (September 2003) produced more than $3.3 billion in damages from wind, inland riverine flooding, and storm surge flooding, ...
Impact of Storm Size on Prediction of Storm Track and Intensity Using the 2016 Operational GFDL Hurricane Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe impact of storm size on the forecast of tropical cyclone storm track and intensity is investigated using the 2016 version of the operational GFDL hurricane model. Evaluation was made for 1529 forecasts in the ...
Experimental Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using the GFDL 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his paper describes a forecasting configuration of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). HiRAM represents an early attempt in unifying, within a global modeling framework, ...