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    Important Factors in the Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Operational Models 

    Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2021:;volume( 060 ):;issue: 009:;page 1265
    Author(s): Marchok, Timothy
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
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    Validation Schemes for Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Evaluation of Operational Models for U.S. Landfalling Cases 

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2007:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 004:;page 726
    Author(s): Marchok, Timothy; Rogers, Robert; Tuleya, Robert
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: A scheme for validating quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for landfalling tropical cyclones is developed and presented here. This scheme takes advantage of the unique characteristics of tropical cyclone rainfall ...
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    The Use of Ensembles to Identify Forecasts with Small and Large Uncertainty 

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2001:;volume( 016 ):;issue: 004:;page 463
    Author(s): Toth, Zoltan; Zhu, Yuejian; Marchok, Timothy
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: In the past decade ensemble forecasting has developed into an integral part of numerical weather prediction. Flow-dependent forecast probability distributions can be readily generated from an ensemble, allowing for the ...
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    Short- and Medium-Range Prediction of Tropical and Transitioning Cyclone Tracks within the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System 

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2010:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 006:;page 1736
    Author(s): Buckingham, Christian; Marchok, Timothy; Ginis, Isaac; Rothstein, Lewis; Rowe, Dail
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) is examined in its ability to predict tropical cyclone and extratropical transition (ET) positions. Forecast and observed tracks are compared in Atlantic and western North ...
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    A Parametric Model for Predicting Hurricane Rainfall 

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2007:;volume( 135 ):;issue: 009:;page 3086
    Author(s): Lonfat, Manuel; Rogers, Robert; Marchok, Timothy; Marks, Frank D.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: This study documents a new parametric hurricane rainfall prediction scheme, based on the rainfall climatology and persistence model (R-CLIPER) used operationally in the Atlantic Ocean basin to forecast rainfall accumulations. ...
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    The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance 

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2007:;volume( 135 ):;issue: 012:;page 3965
    Author(s): Bender, Morris A.; Ginis, Isaac; Tuleya, Robert; Thomas, Biju; Marchok, Timothy
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The past decade has been marked by significant advancements in numerical weather prediction of hurricanes, which have greatly contributed to the steady decline in forecast track error. Since its operational implementation ...
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    Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts 

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2012:;volume( 028 ):;issue: 001:;page 287
    Author(s): Sampson, Charles R.; Wittmann, Paul A.; Serra, Efren A.; Tolman, Hendrik L.; Schauer, Jessica; Marchok, Timothy
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: n algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near?real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the ...
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    Modeling Extreme Rainfall, Winds, and Surge from Hurricane Isabel (2003) 

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2010:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 005:;page 1342
    Author(s): Lin, Ning; Smith, James A.; Villarini, Gabriele; Marchok, Timothy P.; Baeck, Mary Lynn
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Landfalling tropical cyclones present major hazards for the eastern United States. Hurricane Isabel (September 2003) produced more than $3.3 billion in damages from wind, inland riverine flooding, and storm surge flooding, ...
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    Impact of Storm Size on Prediction of Storm Track and Intensity Using the 2016 Operational GFDL Hurricane Model 

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2017:;volume( 032 ):;issue: 004:;page 1491
    Author(s): Bender, Morris A.;Marchok, Timothy P.;Sampson, Charles R.;Knaff, John A.;Morin, Matthew J.
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: AbstractThe impact of storm size on the forecast of tropical cyclone storm track and intensity is investigated using the 2016 version of the operational GFDL hurricane model. Evaluation was made for 1529 forecasts in the ...
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    Experimental Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using the GFDL 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model 

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2011:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 006:;page 1008
    Author(s): Gall, Jeffrey S.; Ginis, Isaac; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Marchok, Timothy P.; Chen, Jan-Huey
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: his paper describes a forecasting configuration of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). HiRAM represents an early attempt in unifying, within a global modeling framework, ...
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