Abstract: AbstractOver the last two decades, probabilistic weather forecasts have been developed to quantify the uncertainties inherent in modeling the climate system. The skill of these forecasts has steadily increased, but the ...

Abstract: he Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s (IPCC) ?very likely? statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the ...

Abstract: A Bayesian statistical model developed to produce probabilistic projections of regional climate change using observations and ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) is applied to evaluate the probability distribution ...