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RISHierarchical Cluster Analysis of a Convection-Allowing Ensemble during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2009 Spring Experiment. Part I: Development of the Object-Oriented Cluster Analysis Method for Precipitation Fields
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: onvection-allowing ensemble forecasts with perturbations to model physics, dynamics, and initial (IC) and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) generated by the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms for the NOAA ...
Hierarchical Cluster Analysis of a Convection-Allowing Ensemble during the Hazardous Weather Testbed 2009 Spring Experiment. Part II: Ensemble Clustering over the Whole Experiment Period
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: wenty-member real-time convection-allowing storm-scale ensemble forecasts with perturbations to model physics, dynamics, initial conditions (IC), and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) during the NOAA Hazardous Weather ...
Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part II: Storm-Scale Experiments
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In Part I, the authors used a full physics, nonhydrostatic numerical model with horizontal grid spacing of 24 km and nested grids of 6- and 3-km spacing to generate the ensemble forecasts of an observed tornadic thunderstorm ...
The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation from Continental Radar Mosaics and Numerical Weather Prediction Models. Part II: Intercomparison among Numerical Models and with Nowcasting
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his second part of a two-paper series compares deterministic precipitation forecasts from the Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System (4-km grid) run during the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment, and ...
On the Effect of Correlations on Rank Histograms: Reliability of Temperature and Wind Speed Forecasts from Finescale Ensemble Reforecasts
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The rank histogram (RH) is a visual tool for assessing the reliability of ensemble forecasts (i.e., the degree to which the forecasts and the observations have the same distribution). But it is already known that in certain ...
Verification of Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts of the Planetary Boundary Layer Using Sounding Observations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: his study evaluates forecasts of thermodynamic variables from five convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the Advanced Research core (WRF-ARW). The forecasts vary only ...
A Comparison of 36–60-h Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: revious studies examining convection-allowing models (CAMs), as well as NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs) have typically emphasized ?day 1? (12?36 h) forecast guidance. These studies find ...
Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensemble Forecasts of a Mesoscale Convective Vortex and Associated Severe Weather Environment
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An analysis of a regional severe weather outbreak that was related to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is performed. The MCV-spawning mesoscale convection system (MCS) formed in northwest Kansas along the southern ...
Using Varied Microphysics to Account for Uncertainty in Warm-Season QPF in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: wo approaches for accounting for errors in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) due to uncertainty in the microphysics (MP) parameterization in a convection-allowing ensemble are examined. They include mixed MP (MMP) ...
A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An experiment has been designed to evaluate and compare precipitation forecasts from a 5-member, 4-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model ensemble, ...