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The Potential for Self-Organizing Maps to Identify Model Error Structures
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n important aspect of numerical weather model improvement is the identification of deficient areas of the model, particularly deficiencies that are flow dependent or otherwise vary in time or space. Here the authors introduce ...
Ensemble Variance Calibration for Representing Meteorological Uncertainty for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: In the event of the release of a dangerous atmospheric contaminant, an atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) model is often used to provide forecasts of the resulting contaminant dispersion affecting the population. ...
Investigation of Ensemble Variance as a Measure of True Forecast Variance
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he uncertainty in meteorological predictions is of interest for applications ranging from economic to recreational to public safety. One common method to estimate uncertainty is by using meteorological ensembles. These ...
An Objective Methodology for Configuring and Down-Selecting an NWP Ensemble for Low-Level Wind Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: nsembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model predictions are used for a variety of forecasting applications. Such ensembles quantify the uncertainty of the prediction because the spread in the ensemble predictions ...